Is it time for the World Triathlon Series to return to a one-off race for the world title? The question has been often posited since the International Triathlon Union first introduced the multi-race series in 2009 that demands triathletes accrue points throughout the season before lining up for an upweighted Grand Final.
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The sport’s luminaries have long lamented abandoning a single showdown format, among the questioning voices, Alistair Brownlee. The two-time Olympic champion has featured increasingly sparingly since winning a second world title in 2011, but in enjoying the Grand Final spoils four times, has underscored his appetite for one-day competition.
The series concept is no failure. It gives prominence to regional races, is admirably global to widen triathlon’s outreach, and has established host venues that draw large crowds (Hamburg and Leeds) and loyal investment (Yokohama and Edmonton). It’s also climaxed in notable drama – the Jonny Brownlee versus Javier Gomez sprint finish in London, 2013, or Jonny’s implosion in Cozumel in 2016.
Yet it suffers, not because of its drawn-out format, but because virtually all stakeholders are beholden to major Games. Federations’ funding is majorly linked to Olympic performance, meaning jobs teeter perilously on results of a once-every-four-year contest. For those racing, a medal unlocks non-endemic sponsorship opportunities, which, given lowly prize money, few would begrudge. The net result is that the WTS’s lustre is stymied because the world’s best can never fully commit – and the talent drains as follows…
The year after the Olympics, triathletes, either frazzled by the qualification process, or realising they don’t have the top-end speed to still be competitive in four years, turn to other options, with many finding a niche – and more autonomy – in non-drafting events.
The following year, the Commonwealths take precedence for many leading nations. Take 2018. Both Flora Duffy and Henri Schoeman peaked for gold in Gold Coast in April, yet couldn’t sustain form and fitness to mount a WTS challenge. The shame being Duffy was favourite for a third straight title.
Attention then turns back to Olympic qualification, but the vagaries of nations’ selection criteria mean triathletes race selectively, tactically and often conservatively to secure an Olympic berth.
In Games’ year, the focus is all on the one race. As if to emphasise, no triathlete has won Olympic gold and the WTS in the same year.
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For the WTS to prosper, it needs all the best triathletes to be invested all of the time. In turn, that helps engage both public and sponsors, and lays a foundation for fans to care enough to follow the narrative of the season and understand the nuance of a Grand Final when the first across the line isn’t necessarily the world champion. Otherwise, a one-off showdown is the way to go.
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Why has the PTO made the decision to try and buy Ironman?
Ever since Providence Capital Partners first saddled WTC with $200 million debt and prepared for their exit sale, the business has been starved of investment. When WSG acquired WTC it burdened the operation with additional debt, thus restricting any ability of the dedicated management to invest and promote the business.
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Our goal in acquiring the Ironman assets is free it from this excessive debt burden and we are in discussions with partners where a healthy portion of equity is injected into the business to reduce interest payments and increase investment in things like promotion, production, race standards and prize money, and maybe even a health insurance programme for professionals.
You must admit something is wrong when athletes like Matt Russell and Tim Don are reduced to GoFundMe pages and charitable sponsor donations to pay medical bills after bike accidents at a World Championship Event. It is actually heartbreaking to see, and to be honest, we are a bit surprised the community is not more upset by this.
How confident are you this will happen – has there been any signs from Wanda that they’re open to this?
While we have not had any overt signs from Wanda before our letter, our bankers, North Point Advisors, have analysed the WSG Financial Statements and the performance of the IPO, and have advised that this an opportune time to start discussions.Since we have now sent our letter and released it publicly, we will not be permitted to comment on any ongoing discussions.
You never know how these things work out. By acting through a collective body like the PTO, the professional are uniquely able to provide significant value to our partners and support and grow the sport we love. This is about athlete self-determination. Our sport is mature enough and economically large enough that, the PGA Golf Tour and the ATP Tennis, the PTO, with or with Ironman, will begin to take responsibility and control of the direction and economics of the sport, and continue to reinvest those economics so the sport has sustainable growth, instead of feeding a highly leveraged financial investor. The athlete self-determination of the sport is inevitable and is seemed to us the cooperative acquisition of Ironman at this time would be the least disruptive route, but it will happen with or without the acquisition.
Why have you decided to release this statement and not kept it under wraps?
Since WSG is a public company, and our proposal could constitute material information and be subject to leaked selective disclosure, our lawyers have advised us that it would be prudent to release the contents of our letter to the markets. We now will have no further comment on the status of our discussions.
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Where will the funding for the purchase come from ?
We are in the process of talking to a number of partners and we will be quite selective as it is important for us to work with a group that shares our vision.
If successful, what will this mean for elites?
This is the first step in the logical path for self determination for the professional athletes in our sport but we believe this won’t just benefit elites – we believe we can raise the profile of triathlon for all stakeholders in our sport – sponsors, age-groupers, other event organisers. We believe Ironman is an incredible brand and business and we want to ensure its longevity and success far into the future.
Prize money is an important component here and can’t be ignored (as an example – Kona prize purse has seen zero growth in the past 8 years despite age group revenues rising 66%) – but the path to self-determination for the athletes goes far beyond that – from input into schedules, regulations, sponsor engagement, promotion – uniting to ensure our sports success.
And how will this impact age-grouper racing?
Our sport is unique in that professional and age-groupers both race the same course and share the same struggles, so we very much envision the age-groupers having a voice together with us as we celebrate the sport we all love so much.
How does this impact Challenge and your relationship with them? And is the Collins Cup still in the works?
Zibi and Felix and the whole Challenge family have been big supporters of the PTO and professionals from the start, and we will continue to be big supporters of them. We think the sport has not well served by the ‘rivalry’ between IM and Challenge, as we think that the organisations’ existing operations are quite compatible and we would seek to work with Challenge and they will be a big asset in helping the sport thrive.
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While we will have strategic financial partners, the PTO itself is a not-for-profit entity, that means we can allocate resources to other organisations in triathlon community who we feel are looking benefit the sport.
Ironman CEO Andrew Messick is categorical: “The race course has to be safe for everybody, not just people who are young and strong.” Ironman has its critics on many issues, but Messick knows this stance cannot easily be challenged. Whether it’s rough seas, blue-green algae, cold water, hot weather, flooding, landslides, bush fires or sharks, you name it, we’ve had it in triathlon in the past few years.
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Nobody wants to see a sporting event end in tragedy, but neither do triathletes want to spend hundreds of pounds on a race and have part or all of it cancelled, as has been happening with increasing frequency. It can’t all be blamed on Mother Nature either. The climate might be changing, but so are attitudes to risk – predicated on an increasing blame culture – that means erring on the side of caution like never before. Competitors often sacrifice their entry fees due to hardline ‘no refund’ policies because organisers’ costs are already sunk, and everyone is left feeling compromised and underwhelmed.
There is a paradox here, though. Ironman is billed as the hardest one-day event on the planet, yet its owners preside over a finance-driven model which demands as many bodies on the start-line as possible, regardless of athletic competence.
The aspirational marketing that claims ‘Anything Is Possible’ for anyone has a flipside – it downplays the challenge. Not in the surface level hype or in the small print of the disclaimers, but in decisions on race day, where the novice who might rarely leave the pool, now encounters the swell of a sea swim, and the race director isn’t confident to proceed.
Ironman is a very different beast to parkrun, for example, that happily celebrates its average times getting slower because it encourages mass participation. A 3.8km swim, 180km bike and 42.2km run puts a severe load on anyone’s body, but the achievement of completing it has been normalised in recent years. It’s no longer the preserve of the quirky few with years of endurance sport experience and the resilience to cope with inclement conditions. Too many of us now turn up wide-eyed and underprepared. Even if organisers don’t encourage it, they have to cater for it, so when there’s a large show of hands at the start of an iron-distance race from those admitting it’s their first triathlon, there should be concern not applause.
Whether an example of society’s increasing need for quick gratification or not, we should question the impulse to go longer and harder at the earliest opportunity. Perceptions have become skewed. After all, a sprint triathlon is an oxymoron. It’s not a 100-yard dash but a solid test of aerobic capacity and a great way of racing more frequently, mastering skills and building an endurance base.
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And if more of us concentrate on strengthening these foundations, then when it comes to eventually going long, it will also help instil confidence in event organisers that their triathletes are conditioned to race in testing conditions. The
result? Everybody benefits.
With the UK being 11 hours ahead of Hawaii, it’s difficult for British tri fans to know what happens when at this year’s Ironman World Championship tomorrow. No worries – we’ve got you covered!
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Start timings for the pro and age-group waves are below, and if you are in the USA you can watch all the action on NBC Sports platform, and and on ironman.com and globally via IRONMAN NOW on www.facebookwatch.com/IRONMANnow.
You can also follow us on Twitter @220Triathlon from 5pm UK time for lots of insight and debate on what’s happening. You can also follow all the British athletes on Twitter via the hashtag #GBKona.
Saturday 12 October 2019 – race day
What
When
Where
Pro men swim start
5.25pm UK time (6.25am local time)
Kailua Pier
Pro women swim start
5.30pm UK time (6.30am local time)
Kailua Pier
Race Start – PC Open / Exhibition & HC
5.35pm UK time (6.35am local time)
Kailua Pier
Male 18-39
5.55pm UK time (6.55am local time
Kailua Pier
Male 40-44
6.00pm UK time (7.00am local time)
Kailua Pier
Male 45-49
6.05pm UK time (7.05am local time)
Kailua Pier
Male 50+
6.10pm UK time (7.10am local time)
Kailua Pier
Female 18-39
6.15pm UK time (7.15am local time
Kailua Pier
Female 40-54
6.20pm UK time (7.20am local time)
Kailua Pier
Female 55+
6.25pm UK time (7.25am local time)
Kailua Pier
If you haven’t already, check out our countdown of the men’s top ten contenders and women’s top ten contenders
For details on the course read our Kona course and tactics guide here
Who do you think will win this year’s race? Let us know in the comments below!
MORE ABOUT KONA
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32 Ironman Hawaii highlights
The top 15 Kona greats of all time
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Wanda, who own Ironman, have rejected the PTO’s (Professional Triathlon Organisation) offer to purchase Ironman and its assets. In a letter to PTO the CEO of WTC, Andrew Messick, said “I have discussed your letter with my Board. While we appreciate your interest, we are not prepared to engage in a discussion around a sale at this point.”
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On 20 September the PTO sent a letter to Wanda proposing “to enter into discussions for the acquisition by the PTO of all of the assets of the Wanda Sports Group Company Limited (‘WSG’) related to its worldwide triathlon and mass participation business (the ‘WTC Triathlon-MP Business’)”.
The PTO responded to this statement with a letter to Ironman, saying: “Please be advised that the PTO will continue to implement its strategy for self-determination successfully followed by professional athletes in other sports such as golf and tennis, and we plan on moving forward with acquiring and operating events in the space to celebrate the sport we are so passionate about. Rest assured that our plan is not mutually exclusive and our proposal to enter into discussions to acquire the WTC Triathlon-MP Business remains open. Together with North Point Advisors we are prepared to begin such discussions immediately should the WSG Board reassess its position.”
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You can read the PTO’s full response to Ironman here
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It’s 30 years since 220 Triathlon first hit the shelves and almost three decades since we witnessed the greatest Ironman race in history. The Iron War of 1989 has gone down in endurance sport folklore as an iconic tussle between two triathlon icons on triathlon’s iconic stage. Iconic? You betcha. Author Matt Fitzgerald’s even devoted an eponymously-titled book to it, and we named it the greatest Ironman world champ moment ever
Five famous Kona rivalries and clashes
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It also witnessed the changing of the guard at the Ironman World Championship. American Dave Scott, the six-time champion and resilient to the last, against his immeasurably talented yet seemingly flawed compatriot Mark Allen, whose previous attempts to crack the Big Island had only exposed his own fragility. Until Allen finally broke Scott’s resistance less than two miles from the finish, there was barely a gel wrapper between them the entire day.
It’s the elite race that has arguably done more than any other to market Ironman to future generations, and as the years pass its stock only rises. Allen’s winning time was a course record by 19mins and it took until 2016 for Germany’s Patrick Lange to finally beat his 2:40:04 marathon.
But another Iron War is long overdue. Yes, in the intervening years we’ve had epic races. Monstrous leads have been hunted down, such as Allen reeling in Thomas Hellriegel in 1995 or Mirinda Carfrae catching Daniela Ryf in 2014. There have been front-runners hanging on, meltdowns just shy of the finish, and utter domination by Chrissie Wellington and, more latterly, Ryf.
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But the closest we’ve had to a mano a mano contest was Chris McCormack versus Andreas Raelert in 2010, where the Australian outfoxed his opponent for a second triumph.
Could 2019 be the year? The German showdown of Jan Frodeno v Patrick Lange – scuppered last year after Frodeno’s injury – could be on. While Frodeno was the dominant force in Ironman Frankfurt in June, history tells us that it’s only in Hawaii that Lange really hits his stride. Could Alistair Brownlee play a role? Trying to read much into Brownlee’s win in Ironman Ireland in June is folly. Everything, including fitness levels, will be different come October. History also dictates that you have to pay your dues in Hawaii – no male has won there on debut since 1996.
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Perhaps for our next Iron War, we should instead turn attention to a rivalry that could blossom to be as exalted as Scott v Allen. Switzerland’s reigning Kona champ Daniela Ryf has won the past four titles – only Allen has won five consecutively. But Lucy Charles-Barclay has been runner-up for the last two and is improving year-on-year. The two tend to avoid each other outside of world championships. As Ryf won in Ironman Austria in July, Charles-Barclay was taking the tape in Challenge Roth. Both remain unbeaten at Ironman distance in 2019. The race dynamic in Hawaii has seen Charles-Barclay overtaken later on the bike leg each time. If they arrive in T2 together then coupled with Charles increasing leg speed then three decades on from 220 reporting on the original Iron War, we could be reflecting on the sequel.
It feels like a recurring theme, but once again this year’s men’s field in the Ironman World Championship is arguably the strongest ever assembled. Despite the change in the qualification system for Kona the big name contenders are all present for what promises to be another fascinating eight-hour war of attrition.
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Germany’s Patrick Lange is looking for a third successive title. Jan Frodeno – the 2015 and 2016 winner who missed last year’s race through injury – returns undefeated since Hawaii 2017. Their compatriot, the 2014 champion Sebastian Kienle looks back to his best, and the popular 2017 runner-up, Canadian Lionel Sanders, is also in the mix after clinching a late berth in Mont-Tremblant.
Then there are the Brits led by David McNamee, who finished third here in the past two years, and the much-heralded debut by two-time Olympic champion Alistair Brownlee. While many eyes will be on the Yorkshireman, Norfolk’s Joe Skipper is also back having finished seventh in 2018, and 2008 Olympian Will Clarke has a point to prove after two disappointing appearances on the Big Island to date.
Predicting the top 10 has never been more difficult, but in true 220 style we’ve crunched the form guide and looked at who has the experience, talent and mindset to succeed in triathlon’s hottest arena. This means that, as always, a few big names aren’t included. There’s no place for Sanders, having spent much of the year injured, nor is there for his fellow speedy Canadian, Cody Beals, who is unproven in the humidity of Hawaii. The experienced Terenzo Bozzone, James Cunnama, Tim O’Donnell and Michael Weiss also miss out, as does the fleet-footed Swede Patrik Nilsson, despite winning Ironman Texas in a rapid 7:50:55.
So just who does make our top 10. Scroll through to find out…
10. Boris Stein, 34, Germany
Yes, another German. And this one shot to attention by winning Ironman Sweden in August with a 4:03hrs 180km bike split and a finish time of 7:49:14, both, unsurprisingly, course records. Given Stein was over 5mins faster than any challengers on the bike leg, it could be easy to dismiss the 34-year-old as just a power-biking bully who will be shown up leaving T2. But he has also shown he can deliver a marathon to back up his prowess on two wheels. It was a 2:53:37 in Kalmar, against his Ironman-best of 2:44:20 in France in 2014. Experience also often proves critical in Hawaii and this will be Stein’s fifth visit as a professional. He seems to have a liking for the Big Island having finished in the top 10 in his last three appearances, and he’ll return fresh and in-form having missed out last year due to injury.
9. Andy Potts, 42, USA
Having represented the USA in the 2004 Olympic Games triathlon in Athens, where he was first out of the water and eventually finished 22nd, the eight-time Ironman champion shows no sign of slowing down yet. These days he’ll happily concede the Kona swim king honours to Australian Josh Amberger and instead settle for a measured effort across all three disciplines – and it appears to be working. Qualification was clinched with victory at Ironman Brazil in May – his first full distance win for three years – and he also produced his fastest iron-distance bike time of 4:17:43 on his way to seventh in Challenge Roth. But while these results might still not strike fear into too many opponents, his enduring consistency on the Big Island means that, even aged 42, you write off Potts from the top 10 at your peril. Six times has placed in the money since his Kona debut in 2008, and last year was his fastest time yet.
8. Braden Currie, 33, New Zealand
The Kiwi should claim some credit for Spaniard Javier Gomez’s quick return to short-course racing after he beat him in a titanic tussle in Cairns last year and then again in Hawaii as Currie ran his way to a career-defining fifth. This year, without Gomez in opposition, he could afford to run 5mins slower to defend his title in Cairns – although that still meant a standout 2:44:33 marathon. From there Currie headed to Germany for an aborted crack at Challenge Roth, where he pulled out on the run citing nutrition issues. Having started the year with victory in the middle-distance Challenge Wanaka in February, it’s been a long season, but he’s shown he’s still in decent nick with a 70.3 win on Australia’s Sunshine Coast on the same weekend as the Ironman 70.3 worlds in Nice. Eschewing that second European trip should place him in good stead to try for another payday here.
7. Cameron Wurf, 36, Australia
Expect another step up the top 10 for Australia’s former professional cyclist Cam Wurf as his unique style of triathlon education continues and he becomes ever more of a threat. First off the bike in the past two years in Hawaii and a training partner of Team INEOS’s Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome, Wurf’s ability in the saddle is unquestioned. Having finished an astonishing 19 iron-distance races since his debut in Cairns in 2016, his marathon time has also dropped from 4:03:38 to twice posting 2:50 splits in 2019. Both runs gave him podium finishes, the first a victory at Ironman Australia in May and the second a creditable third place at Challenge Roth in July. Wurf faded to 17th on his Big Island debut and to ninth last year after posting a 4:09:06 bike course record and holding out for 15km on the marathon before a concessionary fist bump as champion-elect Patrick Lange breezed past. Expect him to hold out for a little longer this time around, especially if it’s windy.
6. Alistair Brownlee, 31, Great Britain
Anyone in triathlon who doesn’t know that Alistair Brownlee is lining up in the Ironman World Championship must have been living under a big chunk of volcanic rock. The two-time Olympic champion, and now two-time Ironman 70.3 World Championship runner-up, has never been to the Big Island before and has played down his chances on debut. That’s with some justification. The last male debutant to win here was Luc van Lierde in 1996 and you have to go back over two decades to Canadian Peter Reid to find a male winner who hadn’t first stepped on to the podium. Brownlee has enjoyed a more fruitful 2019 to last year – which he spent the majority of recovering from surgery or injured – and if not at his very best, the 31-year-old still looked strong in finishing second to Norway’s Gustav Iden at the 70.3 worlds in Nice.
Ali Brownlee talks exclusively to 220 about Kona and how he’s feeling
Kona 2019: What are Ali Brownlee’s chances at this year’s Ironman world Championships?
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But unlike some rivals, such as Javier Gomez, who was travelling from the World Triathlon Series Grand Final, or Patrick Lange, who appeared to be using it as a tune-up race for Kona, Nice was a key target race for Brownlee. Kona, he admits, will be more of an experiment, and he doesn’t even have a three-discipline Ironman to draw on for experience, with his qualification in Ironman Ireland shortened to a duathlon after the swim was cancelled. Yet while there are many reasons to write off his chances, including coping with the heat and humidity, his talent and ability to dig deep are unsurpassed, and, as his former coach and long-time mentor Malcolm Brown says: “I have been surprised many times by Alistair, and would hope to be so again.”
5. Bart Aernouts, 35, Belgium
The Belgian had been a consistent top 10 performer since making his Kona debut in 2012 until last year, where he stepped up a level, running a 2:45:41 marathon off a 4:12:25 bike split to clinch an unlikely runners-up spot and follow Patrick Lange in becoming only the second triathlete to duck under 8hrs on the Big Island. A former duathlete and now coached by two-time Kona winner Luc van Lierde, Aernouts marathon splits have always been of high calibre, but it’s the bike that has really improved. Last year he posted a 4:00:50 split in Ironman Hamburg, albeit on an exceptionally fast day, with a cancelled swim replaced by an initial 6km run, but he also backed it up with 4:17:57 at Challenge Roth in July. With the swim Aernouts weakest discipline, don’t expect to see him until later in the day, but as he showed in the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in Nice with a competitive 2:19:46 bike split and 1:10:36 half-marathon for sixth place, he’s peaking perfectly for the Big Island once more.
4. David McNamee, 31, Great Britain
The Scot has made the top three twice in Hawaii in the past two years and has the third fastest time ever on the Big Island, marking him out as Britain’s finest male Ironman triathlete. Yet it’s still a big jump to the top step of the podium and he knows that leap has to come from an improved bike leg. While it has become top priority, it also hasn’t come to fruition so far in 2019. McNamee split 4:52:13 on a self-confessed ‘bad day’ at Ironman South Africa and 4:31:39 on a traditionally fast course at Roth, although he did puncture on the way. It leaves his best effort as the 4:21:18 he posted in Hawaii last year on a day where the Big Island was at its most benign. In contrast, his run form looks better than ever with 2:41 marathons in both iron-distance races this year, as he ran back through the field. Few are as shrewd as McNamee on the Big Island, and none, bar Lange, have shown they can maximise their ability here as much as the Scot. It’s why you cannot write him off for another perfectly pitched race, and a similar performance – if not finishing position – to the past two years.
3. Sebastian Kienle, 35, Germany
There’s a renewed vigour about Kienle in 2019 that suggests five years on from lifting the Kona title, the German could be in the shape to deliver another masterclass. Britain’s David McNamee was quick to pick the 35-year-old out in 220’s Hawaii previews (Issue 369) and he showed with his race-best 4:17:36 bike leg in Ironman Germany, where he pedalled the 180km with a piece of glass picked up in transition stuck in his foot, and a 1:09:31 half-marathon in the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in Nice, that he’s in shape to threaten the podium once more. Kienle’s swim remains a concern, he lost over 3min over 1.9km to the leaders in Nice and has to go double the distance, again without a wetsuit, in Hawaii. But there’s more time to make inroads on the bike over the full distance, and he won’t be short of time-trial aces for company with the likes of Cameron Wurf, Bart Aernouts, Joe Skipper and Andrew Starykowicz also likely to be in the chasing groups. We’ve seen in previous years how the Queen K course suits Kienle to a tee, particularly putting the hammer down on the descent from Hawi, and having dropped out of last year’s race, he has extra incentive to perform.
2. Jan Frodeno, 38, Germany
The 2008 Olympic champion and 2015 and 2016 Ironman world champion, undefeated since Hawaii 2017, will be many observers’ pre-race favourite after another stellar year and opting not to defend his Ironman 70.3 world title to keep full focus on Kona. There’s every reason it might pay off. Frodeno looked serene in defeating Sebastian Kienle to win Ironman Germany for a third time in June, and his biggest fear might be injury after a back issue forced him to jog through the marathon in Hawaii in 2017, and a stress fracture of the hip kept him out of the race altogether last year. If on form, Frodeno will be to the fore in the swim and bike, but may have to run faster than the 2:45:34 marathon he produced to win in 2016 to be successful for a third time. Aged 38, that would be no mean feat and make him just a few months younger than the oldest Kona winner, Craig Alexander, in 2011.
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1. Patrick Lange, 33, Germany
The 2017 and 2018 winner has a trump card that no other triathlete looks capable of playing in Hawaii – a 2:40 marathon at will. Lange, largely anonymous for the rest of the year, has produced it on all three occasions he has raced on the Big Island, and it’s not just the speed, but the knowledge that no-one has come close to matching it, giving him a buffer of around 5mins to his main rivals and 10-15mins over the rest of the field. Aged 33, Lange is softly spoken, small in stature, and far from the best swimmer or cyclist in the sport, and he can expect to be attacked more on the bike this year than ever before. But he remains unfazed by 2019 defeats at Ironman Germany (11th place and 52mins behind winner Frodeno) and the Ironman 70.3 World Championship (22nd), knowing he has the two fastest winning times ever in Hawaii and the confidence that he can run down anybody on the Big Island.
There’s a sense of deja vu about the women’s Ironman World Championship this year, with a red-hot favourite, a rising adversary and an improving supporting cast trying to figure out a way to upset the odds. If it’s the same script as 2018, it’s clear it’s going to take more than a jellyfish sting to stop the all-conquering Daniela Ryf taking centre stage as she looks for a fifth straight Kona title.
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Behind her, Lucy Charles-Barclay, second twice in the past two years, leads the quest to try, but it’s not just a two-woman race. The likes of three-time champion Mirinda Carfrae, German duo Anne Haug and Laura Philipp, USA’s Sarah True, who has come through more than enough drama already in qualifying, and experienced podium-chasers Sarah Crowley, Kaisa Sali and Heather Jackson, will all hope to feature prominently. Five other Brits also line up alongside Charles-Barclay, with the return of 2018 ninth-place finisher Corinne Abraham, Nikki Bartlett, Susie Cheetham and Laura Siddall, and a first start for Kimberley Morrison.
Who will make the top 10? As we do every year, 220 has researched the form and fitness of the main contenders to reveal our predictions…
10. Kaisa Sali, 38, Finland
The Finn has visited Hawaii in the past three years and sliced 10mins off her finishing time on successive visits. It was good enough for two fifth-places and then seventh last year and with another sub-9hr performance at Ironman Cairns in June, there is little reason to think she won’t again be contending for prize money. Sali has raced sparingly this year, but did return for the recent Ironman 70.3 World Championship where she placed a commendable 12th. Yet it’s the longer distance where she excels, with a race built around a strong bike leg and a consistent marathon around the 3hr mark. As if to illustrate, her 10 iron-distance marathon times are separated by less than 10mins, ranging from 3:08 down to 2:59.
9. Laura Philipp, 32, Germany
You could be forgiven for not being overly familiar with the name Laura Philipp because the German triathlete has just one Ironman race to her name and that was in Barcelona in October last year. However, not only did she win to qualify and give herself over 12 months to prepare for her Hawaii debut, but in finishing in 8:34:57 with a 2:52:00 marathon she became the fastest female debutant ever in one of the fastest women’s times ever. For good measure, Philipp added another five 70.3 titles in an undefeated season and looked set to take 2019 by storm. That hasn’t happened. After winning in Marbella in April, an injury forced her to quit Challenge Heilbronn in Germany on the run in June. Under the guidance of coach and husband Philipp Seipp, who has also been coaching an improved Sebastian Kienle for the past year, Philipp has rehabilitated and is ready to give Kona a crack. If she can find anything like the form she had pre-injury, then she’ll be worth keeping an eye on.
8. Heather Jackson, 35, USA
After three top five finishes in Hawaii, Jackson had a rare off-day last year, where she slipped back on the run to 14th place. The 35-year-old put any demons to bed over that result by delivering a stellar 8:39:18 performance to win Ironman Arizona the following month in a new best time over the distance. Jackson, a former track cyclist who grew up playing ice hockey and football, has also enjoyed victory in 2019 on a rare excursion to Europe for the inaugural Ironman-branded Vitoria-Gasteiz in northern Spain, and 70.3 success on more familiar territory, for a fourth straight year at Chattanooga and a second time at Coeur d’Alene. Suited to the heat and with a strong back-half of the race, a top 10 will be the least she expects.
7. Jocelyn McCauley, 31, USA
If McCauley can piece together her perfect race then she has the ability to be a force in Hawaii. Last year the American looked set to improve on a creditable 10th place on debut in 2017 before she blew out on the marathon and eventually toiled down Ali’i Drive in 30th. But this year she has stepped up a level. Two of her declared ‘outcome goals’ were to win an Ironman and finish under 9hrs. She achieved both in New Zealand in March with a new course record of 8:53:10, and then went even faster in Texas the following month with 8:39:41. Both races were pegged on sub-3hr marathons, which puts the 31-year-old from Idaho in with a shout of achieving her final outcome goal for the season – placing in the top five in the Ironman World Championship.
6. Sarah True, 37, USA
It’s been a dramatic season for Sarah True, defined by the final throes of her two Ironmans – of which she has little recall. A former World Triathlon Series race winner and fourth-placed finished in the London Olympics, after transitioning from short-course racing and finishing second in Ironman Germany in 2018, she backed it up with fourth place in Hawaii. But although it was an impressive debut on the Big Island, being placed outside the top three meant that there was no automatic qualification to Kona by just completing an Ironman in 2019. She’d have to earn her spot outright. That led True to Cairns and a DNF 17km into the run where she said she “blacked out and it was super scary”. If that was worrying, in her next attempt, on an unseasonably hot summer day back in Frankfurt in June, she was 700m from the finish with an otherwise unassailable lead when she fell victim to heatstroke. True eventually cemented qualification in August in Mont Tremblant by finishing runner-up to Australia’s Carrie Lester who had already bagged her Kona spot in France. Whether she had any energy left for the Big Island or can handle the heat remains to be seen, but if she races to her potential then another top five finish is within her capabilities.
5. Mirinda Carfrae, 38, Australia
The three-time champion in 2010, 2013 and 2014 is the only woman to have beaten Daniela Ryf on the Big Island, and although she may not be the force she once was, Carfrae is still capable of producing a performance that threatens the podium. Having last won five years ago, she took time out after finishing runner-up in 2016 to start a family with triathlete husband Tim O’Donnell. Last year’s return saw the Australian finish fifth when calm conditions helped her post her fastest ever bike split in an iron-distance race. As a past winner, Carfrae’s validation race was ticked off with sixth place in Ironman Mar del Plata in Argentina in December and this summer saw June and July successfully filled with 70.3 races where she won in Victoria and Mont Tremblant before finishing runner-up in Coeur d’Alene and Santa Rosa. It means the 38-year-old should arrive in Kona fresh for another assault on her favourite race. Don’t write her off yet.
4. Sarah Crowley, 36, Australia
Replacing the two Ironman victories the Australian achieved in both 2017 and 2018, Crowley has had to accept two runners-up spot in Ironman Cairns and Challenge Roth this year. But those defeats came at the hands of New Zealand’s Teresa Adam, who has opted out of competing in Kona, and the redoubtable Lucy Charles-Barclay, and do little to undermine Crowley’s pedigree as one of the finest long-distance triathletes in the sport. It’s a consistency that’s extended to Hawaii, with a third place in 2017 and sixth last year. Perhaps wisely choosing to race – and win –a low-key 70.3 event in Santa Cruz than travel to the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in Nice, Crowley has set herself up neatly for another crack at the podium. A consistent performer over all three disciplines, she lacks the potent weapon of a Charles-Barclay swim, Ryf bike, or Haug run to threaten for the title, but her footspeed is improving. In the latest of her 13 iron-distance finishes, in Roth, she came within 2sec of cracking the 3hr barrier on the marathon, her best yet.
3. Anne Haug, 36, Germany
The German posted a time of 8:31:21 at Ironman Copenhagen in August to place her in exalted company with only Chrissie Wellington, Daniel Ryf and Melissa Hauschildt having gone faster over the full distance. It was only the third Ironman of Haug’s career after moving across to long distance racing last year with a fourth-place finish in Germany and going one place better in Hawaii. Her small frame and strong running style always marked her out as a threat for Hawaii and a 2:55:20 race-best marathon on the Big Island confirmed that potential. Haug has seen her swim and bike times improve in all three races too and it’s a direction of travel she’ll need to maintain if she’s to be within striking distance of Ryf come the business end of the race. If she can be, then she had the chance of achieving what Mirinda Carfrae did in 2014, running down the Swiss and becoming only the second woman to have beaten her on the Big Island. But that remains a big ‘if’.
2. Lucy Charles-Barclay, 26, Great Britain
Runner-up on her past two visits to the Ironman World Championship, a yardstick as to whether Charles-Barclay is closing in on her nemesis Daniela Ryf was denied to us in the 70.3 worlds after the Brit picked up a 5min drafting penalty that effectively ended her chances of victory.
Can Lucy Charles-Barclay win Kona 2019?
Until then Charles-Barclay had kept her 2019 powder dry on the rivalry between the sport’s top two, and produced an impressive and undefeated season with headlines victories at Ironman South Africa, Challenge Roth and the Challenge Championship in Samorin, Slovakia, for a third consecutive year. With the sanction in Nice only fuelling the fire for another shot at the Swiss here, expect the 25-year-old to open a gap after the swim (she broke the long-standing swim course record last year), and try and maintain that advantage all the way to T2. If she does, then running shoulder-to-shoulder with Ryf over the marathon will be a test of both Ryf and Charles-Barclay’s improved run form. Twice the Brit has run under 3hrs for the marathon, both of which have been this year.
Read Lucy Charles-Barclay’s thoughts on her Kona 2018 performance here
1.Daniela Ryf, 32, Switzerland
The Swiss looked at her indomitable best as she collected a fifth Ironman 70.3 world title in six years on the Cote d’Azur at the start of September, and it’s difficult to see how anyone can stop her winning a fifth consecutive Ironman World Championship. Ryf’s dominance over both 70.3 and the full iron-distance now surpasses any triathlete in history and while she was seventh in the Olympic Games in 2008 and was European junior champion as far back as 2004, there are few signs that her mind or body are losing their edge.
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Her greatest challengers are likely to be Lucy Charles-Barclay attacking from the front, and Anne Haug trying to run Ryf down from behind, but there’s a sense it will take something incredible from either, or both, plus a sub-par Ryf performance or mechanical calamity to usurp her. In 2018, Ryf, in unprecedented calm conditions, broke the bike (4:26:07) and course (8:26:18) records despite being stung by a jellyfish during the swim and thinking she may have to quit. No-one has been able to apply any real pressure on the Swiss since Mirinda Carfrae chased her down on debut in 2014. The Australian broke the run course record that day in one of the all-time great Ironman performances. You’d sense someone will have to do similar to take Ryf down again.
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Kona: The Course
Of all the competition each athlete will face at October’s Ironman World Championships, none will be so utterly indefatigable as the island itself. There’s a reason the World Championship remains on the shores where Ironman moved to in 1981 [the first three events took place in Oahu, Hawaii].
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With its brutal heat, pummelling winds and gruelling hills, Kona is a place where anything can happen – and usually does. From Julie Moss to Paula Newby-Fraser and Normann Stadler, many an athlete has been forced into a crawl or a DNF on the course, giving rise to unexpected shake-ups in the top ranks.
There’s still no distinct landmark that ‘tells the tale’ better than the finish line itself. But there are key landmarks you can look at for progress along the way…
The swim and T1
There may be more riding on the swim than ever before. After Normann Stadler won with a crushing cycling performance in 2004, the prevailing strategy was to establish a lead in the lava fields and then ‘hold on’ through the marathon. But the trend in recent years has shown the über-bikers having to overcome gaps incurred on the swim before creating their lead for the run.
As close as the men’s race portends to be, the amount of time taken in transition could make a crucial difference in the early positions on the bike.
Bike Course
© Michael Rauschendorfer
Most people look at the elevation profile of the course and think that the 19km climb up to the turnaround point is the make-or-break point. But looks are deceiving, and the actual determinant is an invisible enemy.
By the time the competitors are well on their way to T2, they’ll be pedalling against those pesky headwinds. Out on the highway, with the sun nearing its peak and not a drop of shade to be found, disaster lurks behind every lava rock. From flat tyres to dehydration and digestive issues, this is where it all goes wrong for even the most prepared athlete.
Six times Kona winner Dave Scott said: “I think the biggest issue isn’t that the men aren’t going too hard on the bike, it’s that the train of athletes are producing these super surges where they’re producing high VO2 and muscle acidity and end up burning muscle glycogen at a furious rate.
“This is conjecture, but I think a number of the athletes don’t do strength training year-round, and Hawaii really is a strength sport. So for the athletes that are chasing Kienle, I’d say stick to your plan and don’t linger in that higher VO2 range for longer than 20secs. Otherwise you’re going to get spat out the back.”
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Transition 2
Again, with the difference measured in minutes, seconds will count getting off the bike and onto the pavement. We’ll know a lot by the time the athletes exit this point and begin the run.
Run course
From 22-30km on the run is where we’ll probably start getting our clearest indications of the finish.
Six-times Ironman world champ Mark Allen said: “Pre-race tactics are very hard to maintain in Hawaii. In 1995, I came out of the bike over 13mins down on Thomas Hellriegel. It was very hard to stick to my plan on the bike, but I’d set an upper limit of how fast I was going to go and if people pulled away, I had to let them go. My run was much faster than Hellriegel’s but it was hard, very hard. Most people would rather not take that risk and not rely on the run, as opposed to going their own pace on the bike in the hope that they have a great marathon.”
Chrissie Wellington said: “If you need to adopt a run-walk strategy, that might be a faster way to the finish.In 2012 Pete Jacobs stopped and stretched. Anticipate the demons that might hit you in Hawaii. The run is rolling so be prepared for it. There are some steep parts and it could actually be faster to walk up them.
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“If you start getting nervous, maybe have some strategies that will calm you down. Just chill out. It’s not a holiday, but don’t let the size of the event get to you. Above all, enjoy it!”
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When Javier Gomez made the previous most-anticipated Ironman World Championships debut in 2018, he finished 11th. When Alistair Brownlee shows up this year, despite insisting it’s a learning experience and despite the aptness of Shakespeare’s wisdom for Hawaii – “caution is better than rash bravery” – there’s a sense it’ll be success or bust. It’s the way Brownlee has raced throughout his career. He doesn’t really do 11th. And it’s why so many are excited to see what he’ll achieve come Saturday 12 October in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii.
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“Alistair has everything that’s required, but will need to make some adjustments to psychology for the length of the race,” says Malcolm Brown, who played a guiding hand in the Brownlee brothers’ rise from keen upstarts to Olympic medallists. Since winning Olympic gold in Rio 2016, Brownlee, through choice and injury, has mixed up his racing schedule, and even being in Hawaii has come about somewhat by chance.
Brownlee’s Ironman debut in Cork in June came at short notice and without specific long-distance prep. His goal had been to produce a performance in front of a home crowd to win the ITU World Triathlon Series event in Leeds for a third time. But when that inexplicably fell flat, attention turned to Ironman Ireland, and a race that would be marked by a cancelled swim, punishingly wet and cold conditions, and a successful pursuit of home hope Bryan McCrystal on the marathon run. It could hardly be further from what he’ll face in Hawaii in October, but he duly accepted his qualification berth.
History shows that male debutants in Kona must earn their stripes. You have to go back over 20 years to Canadian Peter Reid to find a men’s champion who hadn’t previously podiumed, so taking the tape first time out is a big ask.
“He’s shown that he can do pretty well as a debutant in longer-distance events,” Brown argues. “One reason is his background in endurance, but he’s also good at preparing when he decides to prepare thoroughly. I’d expect him to take three weeks to acclimatise as much as he can, but I also think he’s doing it this year to understand how he’ll react physically, to give himself the best chance in the future.”
In trying to topple 2015 and 2016 champion Jan Frodeno, and 2017 and 2018 winner Patrick Lange, who lowered his own course record to 7:52:39 last year and seems able to produce a 2:40hr marathon at will, Brownlee will need to respect the conditions as much as his German rivals. “It’s knowing where your red line lies,” Brown adds. “Alistair can bury himself, but if you do that in Hawaii you won’t finish. It requires a different mentality.”
Unanswered questions
Producing a swim and bike leg strong enough to remain in contention has to be a given, but it’s the run where questions remain unanswered, and, in truth, have been since a hot day in Hyde Park in 2010 when Brownlee flaked out approaching the finish and can’t remember the final yards. While brother Jonny’s near-collapse in Cozumel in 2016 only increased perceptions that the Yorkshire brothers might be susceptible to heat, Brown sees it slightly differently.
“Counterintuitively, a 10km can be more of a threat to athletes who are vulnerable,” he suggests. “I think there’s some good evidence that over 10km you are running much closer to your limits.”
If Brownlee is to triumph he’ll repeat the rare achievement of Brit Chrissie Wellington, who won convincingly on debut in 2007. “He can cope with the pressure, attention and expectation, and with surges on the bike,” Wellington says. “But I do think the marathon will be a huge challenge. My advice is to adapt to the heat long before you get there and develop strategies for racing in it, put spare nutrition in your special needs bag and choose your wheels carefully based on the winds.”
Brown remains cautiously optimistic: “I’m confident he’ll complete with distinction, yet I’d be surprised if he were able to know enough about the conditions without having run it before to be the top man. But I’d hope to be surprised; I have been many times by Alistair.
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