Exactly a year ago, Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, was on top of the world.
Or more specifically, he was on stage at the first “Davos in the Desert” investment summit in Riyadh, happily discussing his plans for a $500 billion (£385 billion) new Saudi mega city.
Western politicians and international business leaders flocked to hear the young prince describe his vision of a reformed Saudi economy and of a gentler society freed from the grip of hardline clerics.
Today, Crown Prince Mohammed at the centre of an international storm over allegations that he ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The same global elites who raced to Riyadh last year are nowhere to be seen this year. The conference hall at the Ritz-Carlton hotel remains packed but few of the attendees are from major US or European firms.
The fall from international favour is the latest dramatic turn in the life of the 33-year-old heir to the throne, who has gone in a few short years from an unknown royal to one of the Middle East’s most powerful men.
Widely known by his initials “MBS”, Crown Prince Mohammed is one of the younger sons of the current monarch King Salman and a favourite among his 13 children.
He has been groomed for leadership ever since King Salman took the throne in 2015, and unlike many of his siblings he was educated in Saudi Arabia not in the West.
He was appointed defence minister at the age 29 but his authority has spread to almost all corners of the Saudi government, earning him the nickname “Mr Everything” from some foreign diplomats.
His 82-year-old father is declining mentally and has handed his son broad powers over the economy. MBS has also been a driving force behind Saudi Arabia’s more aggressive foreign policy, including its disastrous bombing campaign in Yemen and the diplomatic effort to isolate Qatar.
In June last year, King Salman moved dramatically to re-order the Saudi line of succession and shift the direction of the kingdom’s future. He removed the serving crown prince, his 58-year-old nephew Mohammed bin Nayaf, and gave the title to MBS instead.
The decision overturned years of tradition in which the Saudi crown is passed sideways from brother-to-brother or cousin-to-cousin and instead set Saudi Arabia on a course where the son would inherit the father’s throne.
In 17 months since Crown Prince Mohammed was elevated, he has moved with unbridled aggression both at home and abroad, smashing what had previously been a slow-moving Saudi governing system based on consensus among the elite.
He pushed through high-profile social reforms, like allowing women to drive and re-opening cinemas, although he has done little to ease the guardianship laws which severely restrict the rights of female Saudi citizens.
Unlike his father, Crown Prince Mohammed has only one wife, a princess named Sara bint Mashoor. Little is known about her but the couple are believed to have four children.
In November last year, he announced an “anti-corruption” drive which saw Saudi police arrest many of his fellow princes and some of the kingdom’s leading business figures. Analysts saw the move as an effort to consolidate power and crush any potential rivals.
At the same time, Crown Prince Mohammed summoned Saad Hariri, the Lebanese prime minister, and effectively imprisoned him in Saudi Arabia and ordered him to resign his position in protest at Iran’s influence in Lebanon.
Mr Hariri was eventually freed and resumed his post after the intervention of France and other Western powers. But the crown prince did not pay any major price for flouting of international norms.
All the while, Saudi Arabia continued its three-year bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. While human rights groups criticised the kingdom for the level of civilian casualties and for a devastating blockade that has fueled famine, MBS has retained the backing of the US and UK.
His support from Donald Trump, the US president, and his close relationship with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, has insulated him from opponents at home and abroad.
One of the key questions of the Khashoggi crisis is whether the White House will rethink the trust it has put in a man it sees as a dynamic reformer, a reliable opponent of Iran, and a potential lynchpin of a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.
Even if the White House stands by him, his international reputation has certainly been tarnished for the time being.
In the summer of 2018 he embarked on a high-profile tour of the US and met with Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, Jeff Bezos of Amazon, and other leading figures from Hollywood and Silicon Valley.
These same figures are unlikely to agree to another photo opportunity with the crown prince while Mr Khashoggi’s murder is fresh in the public mind, although they will likely quietly continue do business with the kingdom.
Crown Prince Mohammed is likely to keep a lower profile for the time being as he licks his wounds and reflects on Western leaders who have not stood by him. Expect the Kremlin to aggressively court the young leader and whisper to him that the US and Europe cannot be relied upon.