Sony Interactive Entertainment announced the PS4’s latest sales numbers from the holiday 2018 season. Over 5.6 million PS4 and PS4 Pro units were sold over the holiday season, bringing the PS4 to over 90 million units sold worldwide, with strong software sales also boosting the platform’s 2018 success.
And yet, at the same time, discussion of the PS5 has already begun — when will Sony formally announce the PS4 successor, what games will be released for it, and when will the system itself be released? Even with several huge titles like The Last of Us Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, and Death Stranding yet to be released, many are already looking beyond the PS4.
For more of our thoughts on whether we feel like we need the PS5, check out the latest episode of our weekly PlayStation show, Beyond!, below.
But is it in Sony’s best interest to cannibalize its own current success? Below, we take a look at both sides of the argument for debuting the PS5 as soon as possible versus taking time to allow the PS4 to go out on a high note.
Why Sony Should Release the PS5 Soon
Sony’s sales success is definitely notable, but it’s also worth pointing out that this still represents a year-over-year downward trend in sales. The PS4 sold 5.6 million units during this holiday season, while it sold 5.9 million in 2017 during the same period, and 6.2 million in 2016 at that same point.
A similar downturn in 2019’s holiday season is likely, one that could be larger given what games are released this fall. Sony has yet to date any of its anticipated exclusives for the fall, and while something like Call of Duty is a given, it’s unclear what Star Wars games EA could have, while there’s nothing quite like Red Dead Redemption 2 launching this year that we know of.
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\r\n2018 brought with it the first real rumblings of Microsoft and Sony\u0027s plans for next-generation consoles. While both companies have acknowledged the existence of new hardware, the details and potential release dates are still heavily rumored.
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\r\nMicrosoft first officially mentioned its work on a new Xbox (or Xboxes) during its E3 2018 press conference, when Phil Spencer said it was \u0022deep into architecting the next Xbox consoles, where we will once again deliver on our commitment to deliver the benchmark of console gaming.\u0022 Shortly after, a report published by Thurrott claimed Microsoft\u0027s next-gen plans include a \u0022series of devices,\u0022 code-named \u0022Scarlett,\u0022 that are expected to launch in 2020.
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\r\nA subsequent report by Thurott, published in July, expanded on the Scarlett rumors. According to the report, Microsoft will release two consoles in 2020: a traditional piece of next-gen hardware and a cheaper, streaming-focused box.
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\r\nRumors about Sony\u0027s next-gen console, meanwhile, have been more scarce. The company\u0027s CEO, Kenichiro Yoshida, told the Financial Times next-generation hardware is \u0022necessary,\u0022 though he didn\u0027t comment on a potential name or any further details for what will likely become PlayStation 5. The FT report, however, claims Sony\u0027s next console \u0022might not represent a major departure from the PS4, and that the fundamental architecture would be similar.\u0022
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\r\nConsidering these rumors, and given the fact that November will mark PlayStation 4 and Xbox One\u0027s sixth year on the market, it\u0027s not too farfetched to believe we may get our first look at the ninth generation of consoles in 2019.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/next-gen-1546961028863.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/next-gen-1546961028863_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:””,”objectRelationUrl”:””,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”01″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Nintendo Is Working on an Updated Switch
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\r\nBefore we\u0027re introduced to next-gen hardware, Nintendo may release a new version of its handheld-home console hybrid.
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\r\nAccording to a Wall Street Journal report, discussions have occurred within Nintendo about a Switch with, among other changes, an upgraded LCD display. The potential new Switch could be released in the back half of 2019, according to the paper\u0027s sources.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/switch-1546961028866.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/switch-1546961028866_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Nintendo Switch”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/nintendo-switch”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”02″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Microsoft Considering a Disc-less Xbox One
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\r\nSticking with the current generation, Microsoft is reportedly considering a disc-less version of Xbox One to be released in 2019.
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\r\nAccording to a report published by Thurrott, the removal of a disc drive would allow Microsoft to sell a variation of its Xbox One for $200 USD or less. The rumored SKU would reportedly be accompanied by a \u0022disc-to-digital\u0022 program, allowing current Xbox One owners to trade in their physical games at participating retailers for a digital download code.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/xboxonex-1546961028869.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/xboxonex-1546961028869_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Nintendo Switch”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/nintendo-switch”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”03″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”A Harry Potter RPG Is in Development
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\r\nSupposed leaked gameplay from an unannounced Harry Potter RPG was posted online in October, sparking speculation and excitement from muggles across the internet.
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\r\nThe video was reportedly leaked by a Reddit user who was shown the gameplay as part of a mall survey group. The footage, which has since been taken down, showed the makings of a promising Wizarding World RPG, complete with character customization, Hogwarts houses, and familiar spells.
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\r\nThe legitimacy of the leak was corroborated by BBC News reporter Lizo Mzimba, who said the footage was from \u0022a yet to be announced RPG currently titled Harry Potter Magic Awakened.\u0022 While nothing about the potential game has been confirmed, it\u0027s rumored to be in development at Warner Bros.-owned Avalanche Software, makers of Disney Infinity.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/harrypotter-1546961028862.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/harrypotter-1546961028862_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Harry Potter RPG Project”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/harry-potter-project”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”04″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Rocksteady\u0027s Mysterious Next Game
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\r\nThere\u0027s been no shortage of speculation about what Rocksteady\u0027s been working on since it wrapped the Batman: Arkham trilogy in 2015.
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\r\nWhile the studio was long-rumored to be working on a Superman game, it shot down that speculation in late November, saying plainly its next game was \u0022not Superman.\u0022 With that rumor deflated, we\u0027re once again left without any clues as to what\u0027s next for Rocksteady.
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\r\nHowever, 2019 will mark the fourth year since the studio\u0027s last AAA release (not counting 2016\u0027s Batman: Arkham VR), making an announcement of what\u0027s to come fairly likely over the course of the next 12 months.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/rocksteady-1546961028864.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/rocksteady-1546961028864_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Harry Potter RPG Project”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/harry-potter-project”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”05″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Blizzard Is Developing Diablo 4 Under the Code Name \u0027Feris\u0027
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\r\nBlizzard has reportedly been working on the next mainline Diablo, under the code name \u0022Feris,\u0022 since 2016. While this remains a rumor, the information comes from Kotaku\u0027s Jason Schreier, who cites nearly a dozen current and former Blizzard employees in his report.
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\r\nThe rumored Diablo 4 wouldn\u0027t be released until 2020 at the earliest, according to the report, and would introduce \u0022light MMO elements\u0022 to the series. \u0022Embrace the darkness\u0022 is said to be one of the guiding principles within Blizzard for the game and its art direction.
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\r\nHopes for a new mainline Diablo are especially high after the reveal of Diablo: Immortal, a mobile-only spinoff, was met with severe fan backlash.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/diablo-1546961028859.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/diablo-1546961028859_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Diablo 4″,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/diablo-4″,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”06″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”A New BioShock Is in the Works
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\r\nEarly last year, an in-depth report on Mafia 3 developer Hangar 13, again published by Kotaku\u0027s Jason Schreier, featured a hidden nugget about the future of BioShock: the series\u0027 next game is currently in development as a top-secret project code-named \u0022Parkside.\u0022
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\r\n2K Games parent company Take-Two Interactive previously called BioShock \u0022unquestionably a permanent franchise,\u0022 seemingly hinting at another entry in the beloved series, which hasn\u0027t seen a new release since BioShock Infinite in 2013. However, development on \u0022Parkside\u0022 was said to be in its early stages, making a 2019 announcement far from a sure thing.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/bioshock-1546961028854.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/bioshock-1546961028854_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”BioShock Next”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/bioshock-next”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”07″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”An Official Borderlands 3 Reveal
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\r\nFans are eagerly awaiting more news on another long-rumored 2K Games sequel, Borderlands 3. While confirmation of its existence came in 2016, developer Gearbox has yet to formally announce a title or reveal any official details about the next Borderlands.
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\r\nAt GDC 2017, Gearbox CEO Randy Pitchford showed off an early tech demo of the next Borderlands in Unreal Engine 4. However, as Pitchford stressed at the time, this was simply a tech demo and \u0022not a video game.\u0022 Six months later, Pitchford said 90% of Gearbox\u0027s development team was \u0022working on the thing I think most of you guys want us to be working on,\u0022 which many took to mean Borderlands 3.
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\r\nWith development seemingly in full swing on the next Borderlands, additional rumors, or perhaps an official reveal, are likely to come in 2019. However, it\u0027s worth noting 2K recently delayed a \u0022highly-anticipated title from one of 2K\u2019s biggest franchises\u0022 into 2020. That title remains unknown, but Borderlands 3 is as good a guess as any.”,”height”:720,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/borderlands3tech-1546961028857.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/borderlands3tech-1546961028857_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Borderlands 3″,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/borderlands-3″,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”08″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Microsoft Is Reviving Fable
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\r\nThe early weeks of 2018 provided us with one of the year\u0027s biggest rumors: a new Fable is in development at Forza Horizon developer Playground Games. The revival, which is reportedly still early on in development, is said to be a big-budget, character-focused RPG.
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\r\nIn 2017, Playground was hiring for a top-secret open-world action-RPG, which puts it in line with the rumored revival\u0027s description. Among Playground\u0027s key hires were developers who worked on Grand Theft Auto V, Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain, Star Wars Battlefront 2, and Hellblade: Senua\u0027s Sacrifice.”,”height”:1080,”width”:1920,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/fable-1546961028861.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/fable-1546961028861_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Fable — Next Project”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/fable-next-project”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:”09″,”albumTotalCount”:10},{“caption”:”Valve Is Creating Its Own VR Headset (and Half-Life VR Game)
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\r\nRumors of a Valve-developed VR headset resurfaced last year with leaked images of a potential prototype.
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\r\nPerhaps even more interesting than the headset itself is the accompanying rumor that Valve is developing a new Half-Life game for the headset. The potential VR game, which was first rumored in 2016, would reportedly be a prequel and mark the first new Half-Life release since 2007.”,”height”:622,”width”:1280,”url”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/valvevr-1546961028868.jpg”,”styleUrl”:”https:\/\/assets1.ignimgs.com\/2019\/01\/08\/valvevr-1546961028868_{size}.jpg”,”credit”:””,”objectRelationName”:”Fable — Next Project”,”objectRelationUrl”:”\/games\/fable-next-project”,”albumName”:”Big Video Game Rumors Going Into 2019″,”relativePosition”:10,”albumTotalCount”:10}]’
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Sony is also looking to have a quiet 2019 publicly, at least as of now. The company skipped PSX at the end of 2018 and announced it’s also not going to E3 2019. Without these major promotional opportunities, and its unreleased exclusives unknown quantities when it comes to release dates, focusing on PS5 in 2019, with even a surprise release this fall, could be a great way to keep Sony in the conversation if its biggest releases aren’t until next year.
Unbeholden to E3, Sony can essentially hold a PS5 announcement event whenever they feel ready or want to react to their competition. Starting that conversation in early 2019 in an official capacity will keep PlayStation looking strong on both fronts — the company not only has major releases for PS4 yet to debut, but already has a clear plan for the PS5 with that sort of showing.
And of course, Sony has to take into consideration what its direct competitor, Microsoft, is doing with the next Xbox. Microsoft has already made it clear the company intends to start discussing the Xbox One’s successor soon, and its buying up of many studios in 2018 felt like the clear start of an exclusives arms race for the next generation.
By starting discussion of next gen in 2019, Sony can position itself as leading that conversation rather than responding to it.
Why Sony Should Hold Off on PS5
Yes, Sony’s sales numbers represent a downtrend year over year, but that’s hardly a surprise in the sixth holiday season in a console’s life. The PS4 is still clearly selling well enough, and owners are hungry for its exclusives, with Spider-Man selling nine million copies since its launch in September.
While the announced exclusive lineup for 2019 is relatively light compared to Spidey and God of War last year (with Shadow of the Colossus and Detroit: Become Human also debuting in 2018), Sony still has three giant exclusives in TLOU Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, and Death Stranding, left to debut before the PS5. Jumping the gun on the PS5, when those titles still need time in the spotlight, could hurt the tail-end of the PS4’s life cycle. If Sony, say, held an event early this year to announce its new console for 2020, why would anyone really want to buy a PS4 this holiday?
Announcing too early could hurt what life the PS4 has left in it, and there definitely seems to be some clear life based on its sales success. Its downward trend has been consistent over the last few years, with no huge disruption year over year in the holidays.
And, if Microsoft spends its E3 announcing plans for next gen, Sony could easily wait until all that info is out there to respond in kind whenever they please.
Should both console makers be looking to launch in 2020, particularly in the fall as they often have, holding an announcement for that same year, or close to it, could prove to be as successful as the PS4’s announcement. Announced in February and released in November, Sony spent all of 2013 really focusing on promoting its new console. To start promoting it this year, without plans to be at one of the biggest stages in gaming, could not just dampen anticipation for PS4 and PSVR titles to come but stretch the enthusiasm of fans leading into 2020 PS5 launch.
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Should Microsoft really start to hit on the next Xbox in 2019, PlayStation can’t completely stay out of the spotlight. But with such a stable of anticipated PS4 titles left, Sony doesn’t need to dip into the PS5 well just yet. Even if sales are taking natural downturns, it’s not necessarily representative that people are clamoring for a new console just yet.
IGN’s own Brian Altano presented the idea on Twitter about whether we’re really in need for a PS5 just yet, and, for the most part, people seem quite happy with the current gen as is. The mid-generation console steps with the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X represented a shift — we’re not nearly clamoring for as big of a technical jump because we’ve already seen one.
Looking at past trends in console life cycles, 2020 seems like the best bet to both announce in heavy detail, and release the next generation of consoles, on both Sony and Microsoft’s fronts. That doesn’t mean we’ll hear nothing about that generation this year, especially if surprise spring launches are in the works, but after such a strong fall for hardware, software, and PSVR, bringing PS5 into the conversation could hurt whatever momentum the PS4 has left in it.
Jonathon Dornbush is IGN’s News Editor, PlayStation lead, and Beyond! host. Talk to him on Twitter @Jmdornbush.